Eating Crow

For a person who enjoys being right as much as I, one might allow that being wrong isn't in the top one hundred things I want to do. However, service to the truth requires admittance of it.

In August, 1995, I made my first public sojourn on these subjects in a speech in Denver, Colorado. I gave the speech and would have been content to leave the stage. However, I was asked to proffer predictions. I had some and indulged the moment. This was my first error. I have since endeavored to stay out of the prophecy business.

I discovered that those who established their faith based upon prophecy were a fickle lot and that no matter how many consecutive predictions you had that were, in fact, correct, the one that wasn't was the item most remembered while all the former correctness waned to zero in meaning and substance. A house built upon such a foundation sits on quicksand and ultimately, no good can come from the endeavor in the short run. Long term benefits are possible yet, we must realize that for a prophet to be recognized as such, he must be correct 100%
of the time. Also, that the knowing of correctness can only be made the instant it becomes the past.

In that 1995 speech, I made a number of comments about Bill Clinton.

a. That he would leave office before his term - he didn't.
b. That Gore would serve but a short time (as president) - he didn't.
c. Based upon an assumption of correctness, I late made corollary comments related to the assumption. These were in error.

There were items also in which I was correct.

1. Asked why he would leave office, I alluded to Jennifer Flowers. In time, this became Monica Lewinsky.
2. I indicated that people should watch Maxine Waters. Ultimately, she would be come a focal point in the
    impeachment.
3. At a later date, on HQ, and well in advance of the reality, I predicted Clinton's impeachment.

The assumption developed as a result of some success and comfort on my part. At one point in the awakening, I came to realize that I possessed a great deal of information and I had no way, at that moment, to account for how Bob would be possessed of it. Once discovered, I set to test the accuracy of the realization by making public predictions. These prognostications included several earthquakes, one of which was an 8 pointer. Admittedly, a relatively rare event.

Logically, however, I should have realized that 10 for 10 correct predictions or even 1000 for 1000 does not insure that the next one might be wrong. Error is always a logical possibility. In the prediction business, you're only as good as your last act.

Now, were I one of these professional prophets who sought to make money from the endeavor, I would quickly fabricate some story to cover the failure. The timeline changed etc. I'm not going to do this. Instead, I deem it better to admit that which is true and obvious. Within the confines of the universe, excepting God, no one is infallible. Clearly, I am not God.

It was suggested to me, as recently as last night - Jan 20, 2001 -  that I may have pegged the wrong Clinton now that Hillary is in play.  I don't want to go here. Better to eat the crow and be done with it.
 

The journey continues.........